COATS: A SEASON OF EXTREMES

COATS: A SEASON OF EXTREMES

NEW YORK — Heading into the all-important Thanksgiving weekend shopping period, retailers report coat business so far has been wildly erratic.
Sales have been good in regions where weather has been cooler than normal, while business is off considerably in parts of the country that have had a warmer than usual fall. That has meant good news for West Coast and Southwest retailers and bad news for East Coast and Southeast stores.
Trends have been more consistent throughout the country. Strong areas have been casual, active styles; leathers; fur trims; short wool coats, and novelty microfiber or microfleece styles.
On the downside, long wools and raincoats have been slow to sell, and these should be the biggest target of the blitz of promotional activity about to hit the market.
J.C. Penney Co. said outerwear isn’t a done business, even as the holidays draw near.
“We’ve planned our business so that there is a continuous flow of goods to the stores throughout the winter selling season,” said Marilee Cumming, president of Penney’s women’s division. “As a matter of fact, our end-of-season buys will be landing in-store by Dec. 1.”
Outerwear sales at Penney’s are up for November, thanks to the protracted but welcome arrival of colder weather, Cumming said, following a slow start.
“Important trends include novelty fleece, such as polar, berber and micropile, along with performance skiwear, fashion leather and active wools,” Cumming said. “Outerwear as a whole is holding its own. Weather is still the key factor in driving the department’s sales. However, the hot trends have gained slight momentum since landing on the sales floor.”
Popular styles are peacoats, belted jackets and junior nylons. Among the key labels are St. Johns Bay and Jacqueline Ferrar, two private label brands, and Columbia Sportswear and Country Woods by Monterey Fashions.
Long coats, regardless of fabric, and microfiber styles have been disappointing.
At Neiman Marcus, short coats, designer furs, evening wraps and capes are among the hot outerwear silhouettes, said Ralph Romberg, vice president and divisional merchandise manager.
“Texture, especially alpaca and boucle, and fur trim also continue to dominate, and black and shades of gray are most important across the board,” said Romberg.
Business was ahead of last year’s, Romberg said, although he noted slow-moving styles were marked down 33 percent at Neiman’s First Call sale that began Wednesday.
Coat sales are strong on the West Coast, where cooler than normal temperatures are pushing sales in October and November.
Above-the-knee-length coats are in the highest demand; microfiber, leather and wool are the leading categories.
At Macy’s West, rainwear cut above the knee is selling well, while long styles are the worst performers, said Mary Nelson, coat buyer.
Sales are up for the third quarter, compared with a year ago, and sales in September were strong, too.
“This year September was over October, but September was extraordinarily cool, but that isn’t going to be true anywhere else,” except for the West Coast, Nelson said.
“It was a lot cooler this year than it was last year in the third quarter,” she said.
Leather typically performs poorly during the third quarter, then picks up later, but “it’s been strong and steady, and very much reflects sportswear styling. None of my leathers are ‘keep-you-warm’ leathers.”
Despite strong early fall sales, Nelson is waiting to see what December holds before she declares the season a success.
“Weather is the final determining factor,” Nelson said. “If it holds and we have a normal December, we’ll have a good coat season.”
The best-selling labels in leather are national brands Kenneth Cole Reaction, Nine West, Jones New York and Luis Alvear, who is an Orange County, Calif., designer.
In wool, the two biggest labels are Kristen Blake and JNY for Jones New York. This is the first year Liz Claiborne’s licensed line of wool coats with The Levy Group has been sold at retail, and those coats are also performing well, she said. Single-breasted, above-the-knee styles are strong, particularly in black.
At Gottschalks, comp-store sales of coats in November are up in the double digits compared with the same period last year. The active category is strongest, and fleece and berber from Denali, microfiber from Forecaster and fur trims from Forecaster and Gallery are selling well, said Gary Gladding, executive vice president of merchandising.
“The wool business that had been slow has picked up, but short is better,” Gladding said, citing Herman Kay as a top label in the category.
In leather, sales have been slow, but have been picking up, led by lamb and scuba-style coats. In rainwear, business has been adequate; London Fog microfiber is doing the best, Gladding said.
“So in general, the outerwear business is very good, and it’s been a little cooler than normal here, so that has impacted all of the outerwear business,” Gladding said.
The worst performers are long wools and what Gladding calls “dumb” leathers, which he describes as having a cheap opening price. The best-selling leathers are $199 and higher, he said.
At The Bon Marche, activewear and casual styles are what consumers are buying, said Linda Pruitt, divisional merchandise manager for dresses, coats and suits.
“In terms of trends, we’re seeing a real interest in microfleece as a category and also on more technical active looks, whether it’s from Pacific Trail or Columbia or whomever,” Pruitt said, noting technical active looks are made of waterproof, breathable fabrics and come in mostly hip-length styles, in anoraks and zip-front jackets.
Fleece and microfleece are also popular, and a London Fog zip-front fleece jacket is doing well, as is Kristen Blake’s microfleece.
Shorter jackets are selling best because more people are dressing casually in khakis, jeans and twill pants these days, and “a longer coat below the knee doesn’t work so well,” Pruitt said.
In wool, Pruitt is having luck with peacoats from Kristen Blake and Larry Levine. The long wool category isn’t selling, but it might pick up closer to the holidays as people buying them as gifts, Pruitt said.
The leather business is small for Bon Marche, but Pruitt sees it as a future opportunity, so the store is testing items in key locations for possible fourth-quarter reorders.
The best-selling style is a short, boxy, single-breasted coat with patch pockets. New this year to Bon Marche are Kenneth Cole and Nine West leather coats, which also are performing well, Pruitt said.
Bon Marche set up some of its outerwear departments later than others to determine what were top sellers before placing deep orders with vendors.
“We set up top doors in August and layered on more doors in September, October and November,” said Pruitt, adding that last year, all doors were rolled out at the same time, in August.
Monroe Milstein, chairman and chief executive officer of Burlington Coat Factory, said, “So far, it’s been a bad one — double-digit bad.”
He said the West Coast has shined, but sales in the rest of the country, including key Northeast and Texas stores, have been disappointing.
“There are certain styles selling, like down coats, which are not lightweight, so it’s a bit confusing,” Milstein said. “Leathers are doing well, and should continue, since they’re a good gift item. The problem in down coats could a be a shortage of merchandise, since everyone planned it down this season.”
Milstein said a late surge could help “bring the numbers up,” but all indications are it’s going to be a tough season for retailers and manufacturers.
At Proffitt’s, a department store chain based in Knoxville, Tenn., coat sales are flat with last year, and no reorders are planned.
“The weather is continuing to be warm, which isn’t helping,” said Dottie Sevin, coat buyer. “Other than that, there’s no one real thing to blame it on.”
Sales in northern stores had been slow early on, prompting Proffitt’s to react to the down trend with tighter buying and more promotions, she said.
Wear-now jackets and Gallery’s zip-out lining styles have sold well, and activewear has been a strong category. Best-selling jackets include a wool tri-tone barn style. In dress coats, customers have reacted well to newness in velvet details and braiding.
Lavelle Olexa, senior vice president of fashion merchandising for Lord & Taylor, said flatly, “It’s been a rather disappointing season. The weather has been so exquisite, and that’s not good for outerwear business.
“There have been some highlights, though, such as fur-trim wools. In fact, fur trim across the board has been good. Leathers have been really important as a whole, and short wools have been pretty good.”
Gary Fritschi, divisional merchandise manager for outerwear at The Doneger Group, described the season as “extremely tough,” with “high volatility day to day and door to door.”
Fritschi said outerwear sales at Doneger’s store accounts were off 30 to 40 percent season-to-date, with “wild fluctuations within that average.”
He said the styles doing well are ones that are “visually stimulating, comfortable, active-inspired and textural.” This includes fashion activewear, fur-trimmed leather, smooth lamb leather and down-filled, box-quilted jackets, Fritschi noted. The most disappointing areas for fall have been long rainwear and long wools, he noted.
He expects a lot of off-price selling at the retail and wholesale sides, including special promotions aimed at drawing customers into the stores.
“The hype will begin after Thanksgiving, with an emphasis on customers being offered exceptional values,” Fritschi predicted.
There is still time left to pull out at least a flat season, he said, “but the window of opportunity is getting narrower.”
“If we can build some momentum through the end of the fourth quarter into the first quarter, then there is a possibility of being flat for the season,” Fritschi said. “In our Northern stores, in particular, what has become known as the ‘fifth quarter,’ which means bringing in spring goods early while the weather is still cold, could also help the final result.”